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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the prize. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

But the current race is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers rising in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a typical season!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

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