Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
