Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
